Richard Bucker

Moores Law

Posted at — Sep 17, 2021

I never knew EXACTLY what Moore's Law said but essentially “power doubles”… Thanks to google I see:

Moore’s law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years. Moore’s law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. Rather than a law of physics, it is an empirical relationship linked to gains from experience in production. – Wikipedia

The talking tech heads have been saying that we are about out of room to continue. There is an interesting coralary… “how many times can you fold a piece of paper?”

Sure they keep making the transisters smaller and they are even stacking more… but really? What is this all good for?

Desktops and laptops do not generally need that sort of density. There simply is no market for a quantum computing desktop. It costs so much to build and then spend most of it’s time idle.

Servers? Well, that’s another story but then you have to question the economics. Not everyone is a google with google power and cooling demands. Also just how efficient are these new CPUs? Could the datacenter find other ways to be more efficient? What would happen next if I could fit all of google’s compute needs in the trunk of my car?

Someone could make the argument that Tesla and Starlink are a mobile datacenter… just sprinkle in a little Etherium.

There will always be the question about AI and the compute needed to make that a reality. They said there are more neurons in the brain than stars in the galaxy assuming we see the available stars and that the light from the rest of the universe has not reached us.

The fact of the matter WE get a lot of work done on our ChromeOS devices. Many of those devices are expensive but most are not and the slow ones are downright cheap. But for the average user who has just a few tabs open it’s the network stupid.